While the statistical series aren’t identical, they clearly show that there was a huge housing bust during the Great Depression, that lasted through World War 2. Then all the GI’s came home in 1945 and got busy making babies. Its plunge pushed the US into the Great Recession and its recovery took us out of recession. An ugly, claw your eyes out bear market where unique boutique prices are down 30% or more is unlikely to occur without a recession – and there is no sign of that on the horizon. And shadow banking, including the use of wealth management products (WMPs) – a pool of securities like trust products, bonds, stock funds that offer higher yields than bank deposits and are sold as low-risk investments – has been one of the main sources of credit for local governments. ICBC’s shares have fallen this week amid speculation that the bank would be forced to help repay investors in a 3 billion yuan ($496.20 million) high-yield investment product issued by China Credit Trust Co Ltd but marketed through ICBC branches. Following an investigation, China Credit Trust told investors that Zhenfu Energy had taken out high-interest underground loans totaling 2.9 billion yuan, bringing its total liabilities to 5.9 billion yuan and threatening its ability to repay the trust loan.
“Regarding this unsubstantiated rumour, a situation completely does not exist in which ICBC will assume the main responsibility (for the trust product),” an ICBC spokesman told Reuters by phone on Tuesday. Ameritrade is making their customers place orders for this stock over the phone only. Consensus economists were looking for a 6.9% gain in orders during June, according to Bloomberg data. The S&P 500 wound up with a gain of less than 1 point, having come back from early loss of 0.9%. Far more stocks fell than rose in the index. Tesla Motors is now back to $130 and poised to move higher. As a result at this stage I am in bearish camp and waiting for a bullish breadth thrust to get back in the market. Described as charismatic, Isdell may be the best man for the job, but it is still too early to see what he can do at this stage to revitalize the brand.
Two significant arguments contra my contention that housing demand will actually decrease at least for awhile YoY this year are that (1) there is a lot of pent-up demand, and (2) interest rates at 3% are still low so there shouldn’t be that much of a reaction. Let me first say that 20% downturns are part of equity investing and long-term equity investors should be prepared to stomach this kind of market action. The first and most likely scenario is a downturn in housing. Housing weakness spooks the market? After residential investment as a contributor to prior weakness come consumer durables, consumer services, and then consumer nondurables. The timing is: homes, durables, nondurables, and services. Alonso Consulting – Offering software development, networking, web site development and support services. For small businesses, keeping operations in-house is necessary until the growth of the company warrants hiring an accountant, or outsourcing the services to a professional service provider. Service fees, exchange rates, the time required for transferring the money, device & app security (if the funds moved through an online system), and many such factors are crucial in the fund transfer process. Indeed, Bespoke has shown that homebuilder sentiment started to slip in January, though readings are not levels where investors are inclined to panic.